How do experts make decisions under duress? And can these fast, expert decisions be modeled? In the blogging world this week, cognitive psychologist Gary Klein is the guest blogger at Cognitive Edge. Klein presented an alternative view of decision making called naturalistic decision making in his book Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.
Firefighters are a good example of naturalistic decision makers. This post in Zugunruhe Coaching Blog explains how Klein examined the instantaneous decision making of firefighters:
Klein tells of a fire fighter who ordered his men out of a burning building without really knowing why he was giving the order; seconds later, the floor they’d been standing on collapsed.
As a researcher, Klein wanted to be able to model this way of making fast decisions, but the firefighters that Klein interviewed seemed to possess an intuitive skill that could not be mapped. An August 2000 article in Fast Company explains how Klein came to understand where this intuitive knowledge comes from:
After many more interviews with veteran firefighters, Klein
developed a radically different understanding of how intuition might
work. Over time, as firefighters accumulate a storehouse of
experiences, they subconsciously categorize fires according to how they
should react to them. They create one mental catalog for fires that
call for a search and rescue and another one for fires that require an
interior attack. Then they race through their memories in a hyperdrive
search to find a prototypical fire that resembles the fire that they
are confronting. As soon as they recognize the right match, they swing
into action.
Thought of this way, intuition is really a matter of learning how to
see -- of looking for cues or patterns that ultimately show you what to
do. The commander who saved his crew didn't have ESP, he simply had
"SP." His sensory perception detected subtle details --
small-but-stubborn fire, extreme heat, eerie quiet -- that would have
been invisible to less-experienced firefighters. "Experienced decision
makers see a different world than novices do," concludes Klein. "And
what they see tells them what they should do. Ultimately, intuition is
all about perception. The formal rules of decision making are almost
incidental."
This type of decision making can be mapped using what Klein refers to as the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Further discussion about modeling naturalistic decision making is found on Visual Business Intelligence blog.