What
does social learning have to do with presidential elections? Mark Earls,
coauthor of I’ll Have What She’s Having, explains.
There
are few things in the world that better evidence the importance of social
learning—the I’ll Have What She’s Having (IHWSH) effect of our book of the same title—than democratic elections, particularly presidential elections. At the same
time, they reveal our culture’s deep ambivalence about IHWSH and copying.
We
tell ourselves that pursuing our democratic rights means each and every one of
us having our own private say on who should be leading us and spending our tax
dollars, but the lengths we go to in order to ensure that the votes we cast are
indeed the votes of free and independently-minded individuals suggest that we
suspect that human nature might be working in the other direction. Consider the
privacy of the polling booth, the elaborate machinery we develop to reduce human
error (and the complex human protocols to ensure there is none), the
(debatable) limits on campaign expenditure, the labyrinthine procedural legal
frameworks within which we manage the Great Big Vote.
Indeed, many countries go further: for example, the UK is one of those
countries in which exit polls may not be published while the polls are still
open. Germany and India are unlikely bedfellows, but both are tougher still—they
have strict limits on the publication of opinion polls of any sort in the latter
stages of elections.
And
rightly so. Whether or not lawmakers behind this legal framework realized what
they were doing, both of these types of banned information syntheses provide
the rest of us with an example to follow—in uncertain decision-landscapes (as
the jargon has it), they provide very good proxies for “what she’s having.”
Indeed,
despite our best efforts, support for political parties and candidates is a
very social phenomenon. Hence the heavy use in our politics of rallies (large
gatherings of enthusiasts which give the impression of popularity), celebrity
and VIP endorsements (former Presidents and Hollywood A-listers, please form an
orderly line), and our obsession with the ever-elusive “momentum” that spin doctors
seek for their candidate—momentum is
a reflection of which way other people (including the media pundits) are
shifting in their views and intentions. Again, a great shorthand for working
out where to land your own vote.
Hence
also the notion of “class” (i.e. group or tribal) politics and political views
as a badge of shared social identity. Indeed, the depth of political divide,
which the last few years in Washington has been characterized, is a reflection
of a larger tribalization of opinions and culture across the US. As Bill
Bishop’s excellent The Big Sort points
out, we have sorted ourselves out into mutually misunderstanding and
mistrusting electorates.
Another
big clue to the importance of #IHWSH in shaping US politics is the clustering of opinions and positions around
issues— Low Taxes, Small State, Gun Control, and Right to Life all seem to go
together because they have come to reflect a group identity. Most discussions
or debates on these issues immediately defaults to the preset position of those
involved; sometimes, as Bishop points out, even encouraging a more extreme
position thanks to what social psychologists call the “risky shift.”
Oscar Wilde was mostly right when he observed,“…most people are other people. Their thoughts are someone else's
opinions, their lives a mimicry, their passions a quotation.”
The
difference between Oscar and us is that we don’t see this as essentially a bad
thing (he despaired of the common man’s lack of originality). In our view, in politics
as in life, IHWSH is large part of how we decide, when we’re left to our own
individual—social—devices.